❋
ALIS DESIGN+ Market Update
What “playing offense” looks like for you in today’s market: Playing offense on the hotel investment/acquisitions front means making a bet now, ostensibly “early,” that domestic travel will remain strong for a “long time.”
Whether macroeconomics and geopolitics are more or less of a concern than in January and how that has informed your strategy Yes, they are real concerns certainly, but geopolitics may well sustain U.S. domestic travel. I find it “interesting” that despite the U.S. support of Ukraine and the disaffection of the USA’s traditional allies from the war in Iran that we do not hear much day-to-day about terrorism risk in the U.S. I’m not suggesting that key agencies are not on constant alert, simply noting that the topic is not constantly in the news.
What overlooked risk the industry should be paying more attention to: Labor costs have increased as we all know. And they continue to increase faster than revenue growth in many major markets in blue and red states, by the way. Technology is a focus, although the lodging industry is historically slow to adapt. But this cost pressure may really change things by eliminating jobs or changing consumer expectations so there is less labor employment in hotels. Robots require maintenance but we determine when.
What’s getting overhyped and what’s being underestimated: What is over-hyped in my view are short-term questions that really can only be answered in the context of longer term trends. January to June in my view as an investor developer is an eye-blink, though I realize that for smaller companies that provide services a six-month problem/decline in business can be devastating. The overhype is often about consumer desires. I would contend that hotels can succeed by being in fine condition and by providing real hospitality and the execution of their basic functions from rooms to front desk to F&B and on and on flawlessly. People come back when they feel the place meets their expectations.
